South African motorists will likely face another petrol price increase in early June, despite fuel prices finally moving into an over-recovery after months of relentless hikes.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund points to a significantly improved fuel outlook, with petrol recoveries turning positive for the first time in three months, and diesel users could finally see meaningful relief at the pumps. The government's decision to begin reversing temporary fuel levy relief means petrol drivers are still expected to face higher prices next week.

At the beginning of May, petrol prices were sitting in an under-recovery of around 85 cents per litre, driven by elevated global oil prices and a weaker rand. But the latest CEF figures now show fuel recoveries firmly back in positive territory:

Petrol 93 has an over-recovery of 35 cents per litre. Petrol 95 has an over-recovery of 32 cents per litre. Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) has an over-recovery of R5.43 per litre. Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) has an over-recovery of R4.77 per litre. Illuminating paraffin has an over-recovery of R5.79 per litre. The turnaround marks the first positive petrol recovery after three consecutive months of steep increases. Despite the improved position, motorists filling up with petrol are unlikely to benefit from lower prices in June.

Treasury's decision to phase out temporary fuel levy relief changes the picture. The main reason is National Treasury's plan to remove the R3.00 per litre relief granted earlier this year, with the return of half of that amount – R1.50 per litre – to petrol prices from June. The remaining R1.50 per litre relief is expected to be fully withdrawn in July unless government intervenes again.

Meanwhile, diesel users will also see half of their relief reduced, with R1.97 per litre expected to return after a temporary R3.93 per litre reduction. At current recovery levels, economists estimate petrol prices could still rise by more than R1.10 per litre in June, despite the improved fuel recovery outlook.

Diesel drivers may finally catch a break. For diesel motorists and transport-reliant industries, the picture is far more positive. The substantial diesel over-recovery is expected to comfortably absorb the return of part of the levy, leaving room for wholesale diesel price cuts of between R2.70 and R3.40 per litre in June.

This could provide some relief to food producers, logistics companies, and consumers after months of rising transport costs pushed up prices across supply chains. Some analysts have suggested Treasury may use the stronger recovery to fast-track the return of the full diesel levy. However, even under that scenario, diesel prices could still decline next month.

The improving fuel outlook follows months of sharp increases fuelled by geopolitical instability in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz – a vital route for global oil and gas shipments. A relatively stronger rand, trading well below R17 to the US dollar in recent days, alongside steadier oil prices, has helped ease pressure on local fuel recoveries.

However, economists caution that the outlook remains highly vulnerable to global events. Any renewed escalation in Middle East tensions, supply disruptions, or a spike in oil prices above $120 a barrel could quickly erase recent gains.

The latest forecast from the Central Energy Fund shows the expected fuel price changes for June 2026: petrol 93 drivers can expect a decrease of 35 cents per litre, petrol 95 users can expect a decrease of 32 cents, and diesel motorists can expect a decrease of between 477 to 543 cents per litre. Illuminating paraffin is expected to drop by 579 cents in price.

The fuel price in South Africa is impacted by two main factors: the international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices, and the rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products. The brent crude oil price is currently $96.22 a barrel, and the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.32/$.

The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month, with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 2 June. The current May 2026 petrol and diesel prices are listed below:

Current May 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):

INLAND

May Petrol 93 R26.52 Petrol 95 R26.63 Diesel 0.05% R32.09 Diesel 0.005% R32.30 Illuminating Paraffin R28.43

COASTAL

May Petrol 93 R25.73 Petrol 95 R25.80 Diesel 0.05% R31.26 Diesel 0.005% R31.54 Illuminating Paraffin R27.38