The sun might be out right now, but don't get too comfortable. Our friends at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) dropped a reminder this morning that the habagat—the southwest monsoon—is about to officially change the vibe of our weather. If you've been busy living your life, you mightn't have noticed the signs. The bureau says we're looking at the onset of the wet season anywhere from now until early June.

Ana Liza Solis, who leads the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, explained that we're currently sitting in a window where we should expect frequent heavy rain events. This is happening alongside a pre-developing El Niño, which is that familiar, annoying weather pattern caused by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. We usually think of El Niño as a time for drought. Solis pointed out that the first sign of it this year is actually the heavy rainfall we're about to face.

"Sudden rains and localized thunderstorms could cause flash floods in highly vulnerable and flood-prone areas. Continuous rains could also result in landslides."

If you live in Western Luzon, or parts of MIMAROPA—that’s Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, and Palawan—you should probably double-check your roof and clear out those gutters immediately. The warning also extends to parts of Panay and Iloilo. Even if you aren't in those specific provinces, the Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and even our busy Metro Manila are on the list for potential heavy rainfall.

It’s not just the monsoon winds bringing the water. PAGASA is also tracking tropical cyclones that are expected to develop during this same period. Solis mentioned that these storms will likely enhance the habagat, making the rains heavier than they would be on their own. While there might be fewer cyclones overall during an El Niño year, the ones that do show up tend to be more destructive. We're talking about storms that reach the typhoon and super typhoon categories. Ano ba yan, we really can’t afford to be complacent.

To keep yourself and your family safe, start prepping your "go bags" today. These should contain your essentials: clean drinking water, non-perishable food, a power bank, a flashlight, spare batteries, and important documents tucked away in waterproof bags. Keep an eye on the official social media pages and website of PAGASA and your local government unit for updates. Don't wait until the streets are already flooded before you decide to pack your things. By then, the traffic will be a nightmare.

  • The habagat season is expected to arrive officially between late May and early June.
  • Western Luzon, Ilocos Region, Cordillera, Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Metro Manila are identified as high-risk areas.
  • El Niño conditions are expected to peak or show significant impacts by the middle of this year.
  • Fewer but more intense cyclones are anticipated due to the interplay between the monsoon and sea temperatures.
  • Vulnerable populations in flood-prone zones, specifically in Panay, Iloilo, and MIMAROPA, are urged to monitor rainfall levels closely.

Living in the Philippines means we’ve seen all sorts of weather, but that doesn't mean we should take the rain for granted. Heavy rainfall doesn't just mean a wet commute. It means the risk of landslides in mountainous areas and sudden flash floods in the city. If your house is near a river or on a slope that has moved before, have an evacuation plan ready before the clouds turn dark. Stay dry, stay alert, and don't let the rainy season catch you off guard.