Fuel Prices Hike Again as Tensions in Middle East Rise

The single sharpest fact in one or two punchy sentences: fuel prices are going up. Who: Energy Secretary Sharon Garin. Where: Manila. When: Starting Tuesday, June 30. Why it matters: a rollback or increase can either save you money or make your daily commute more expensive.

Energy Secretary Sharon Garin announced the permitted price range adjustments for the week of June 30 to July 6. Gasoline prices will decrease by up to 10 centavos per liter or increase by up to P1.90 per liter. Diesel prices will drop by P1.16 per liter or go up by up to 84 centavos per liter. Kerosene prices will decrease by 78 centavos per liter or increase by up to P1.22 per liter. The Department of Energy's price monitoring showed common retail prices in Metro Manila at P73.00 per liter for gasoline RON95, P72.00 per liter for gasoline RON91, P69.10 per liter for diesel, and P97.50 per liter for kerosene for the week of June 23 to 29.

Last week's rollback came after global oil prices eased on hopes that the slowdown in fighting between the US and Iran would lower supply risks in the Middle East. The narrow waterway of the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important oil shipping routes, so any threat to vessel traffic there can ripple through fuel prices. However, those hopes have since been tested by renewed hostilities. Oil prices rose again after fresh exchanges between the US and Iran reignited fears of disruption in the Persian Gulf and slowed shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The US and Iran have since agreed to halt attacks and renew talks, but this may not yet have been factored into this week's fuel prices. The Department of Energy had warned in its latest oil monitor that while crude prices had softened on expectations of improving Hormuz flows and the possible return of Iranian supply, declines could still be limited by low inventories and uncertainty beyond the temporary ceasefire period. Despite last week's rollback, local pump prices remain well above levels seen before fighting between Iran and US-Israeli forces erupted on February 28. In the last full week before the conflict, DOE data showed common retail prices in Metro Manila at P56 per liter for gasoline RON95, P54.70 per liter for gasoline RON91, P55 per liter for diesel, and P83.47 per liter for kerosene.

The Philippines is a net importer of petroleum products, making local pump prices vulnerable to global oil price swings and disruptions in international supply routes. Rappler's energy reporting shows the country's fuel prices are closely tied to international oil prices. Energy Secretary Garin's price monitoring also showed that prices for oil products are expected to remain volatile due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East.