By January next year, the Federal Government's failure to think through the security impact of its new tax laws will become obvious. That's the warning from security consultant Dr Charles Omole.

Omole spoke on Friday at The Platform, an annual Democracy Day programme. His topic was "Governance, Democracy and National Security."

He said he hasn't seen any sign that the government conducted a security impact assessment before President Bola Tinubu signed the four Tax Reform Bills into law on 26 June 2025. The laws are the Nigeria Tax Act (NTA), the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA), the Nigeria Revenue Service Act (NRSA) and the Joint Revenue Board Act (JRBA).

"I haven't seen any sign that the government has done any security impact assessment of those tax policies. Mark what I'm saying now: by January next year you'll begin to see the security impact," Omole said.

Right now, enforcement of the new tax regime has been light-touch. So Nigerians aren't reacting yet. But Omole says that'll change.

"I earlier said one consequence of the new tax policy is that Nigerians will begin to hold cash at home, not in their bank accounts. And if a lot more people hold cash at home, what does that mean? More robberies. So what have we put in place to pre-empt that impact?" he asked.

Omole argued that Nigeria must move from seeing security as a matter for the police and military to seeing it as a governance issue. Every government department affects security, he said.

"Bad land policy can create conflict, bad education policy can produce and recruit extremists, bad urban planning can create ungoverned spaces, bad economic policy can turn desperation into violence. Bad justice delivery can turn victims into vigilantes. So security is the duty of every department of government. But that hasn't been the case in our country," he said.

Omole is a well-known security analyst who has frequently criticised the government's approach to security. He has argued in the past that Nigeria treats security as a reactive, force-based exercise rather than a preventive, policy-driven one.

The new tax laws were presented by the government as a way to simplify Nigeria's tax system and boost revenue. But critics have raised concerns about their potential to push more economic activity into the informal sector and increase the tax burden on ordinary citizens.

Omole's warning adds a security dimension to those concerns. If his prediction is correct, the government may face not just economic fallout from the tax laws but also a spike in violent crime.

The government hasn't responded to Omole's comments. But the clock is ticking. January 2027 is seven months away.