A Tale of Two Realities

President Bola Tinubu walked onto the stage at Eagle Square on May 29, 2023, and changed the Nigerian financial landscape with three words: "Subsidy is gone." The move caught even his closest aides off guard, but the logic was simple: removing the expensive fuel subsidy and unifying the exchange rate would plug holes in the national pocket and pull more Naira into the government’s reach. Three years later, bank statements show that the plan definitely worked.

Data from the Nigeria Customs Service shows a massive jump in intake. They collected ₦3.21 trillion in 2023, moved up to ₦6.1 trillion in 2024, and hit an eye-popping ₦7.28 trillion by the end of 2025. That final figure wasn't just a win; it blew past their annual target by ₦697 billion. If you look at the tax side of things, the National Revenue Service (formerly FIRS) has been even busier, hauling in a historic ₦47.39 trillion between October 2023 and September 2025 alone.

"Today I can stand here before you to brag: Nigeria is not borrowing. We have met our revenue target for the year and we met it in August."

President Bola Tinubu made that bold claim last September, leaving many wondering if the fiscal nightmare was finally behind us. The government points to a massive surge in non-oil revenue, which now accounts for about 76% of all collections. They argue that their tax reforms and the modernised approach to collecting duties have finally turned the tide. The top brass are proud, pointing to a huge increase in income from non-traditional sources.

The Cash That Isn't There

If the money is truly flowing in like a dam burst, you might wonder why the Federal Ministry of Finance still feels like a place where people go to beg. Frustrated pensioners and contractors often block the gates, shouting for their money. For them, the talk of record-breaking revenue is just a story they hear on the radio while they are struggling to put food on the table. The reality is that the government is still failing to pay for work already finished, leaving people in limbo.

Then there's the issue of the capital budget. This pot of money is meant for building roads, schools, and hospitals. In 2024, the implementation was a disaster, with only about 25% of the planned projects seeing the light of day due to a lack of funds. The situation got even more confusing in 2025, where 70% of the capital budget was simply pushed into the next year. This wasn't a one-off error; the 2025 budget got extended to March 2026, then June, and even now, 30% of that money is slated to be spent as late as November 2026.

The Multi-Budget Maze

Part of the problem is a strange habit of running multiple budgets at the same time. At the peak of this administrative chaos in 2025, there were four different budgets running concurrently. You had the original 2025 budget, a supplementary version, and leftovers from 2024. For anyone outside the inner circle, it's a total headache. Even civil society groups and the media can't keep up with the shifting numbers and overlapping deadlines.

Government officials, including former Finance Minister Wale Edun and Senate President Godswill Akpabio, often say that the states are now "awash with cash" thanks to these reforms. Vice President Kashim Shettima recently echoed this, suggesting that local governments are now so liquid they don't even need to borrow. They believe the state governments should be the ones driving growth now. Yet, if the states are overflowing with liquidity, the federal government remains stuck in its own cycle of extension and excuse-making.

Why The Numbers Don't Add Up

When the President says Nigeria isn't borrowing, he is referring to the federal budget, but the math is complicated by the way Nigeria is structured. The 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory have their own budgets that don't always align with the federal playbook. Even with the National Revenue Service hitting targets, the government hasn't been able to stop the pressure for loans or solve the slow pace of infrastructure delivery. The gap between the billions being reported on paper and the actual cash hitting the ground remains a mystery that no amount of revenue-side success has managed to bridge.

Government officials may be celebrating record-breaking numbers, but the fact remains that the government is still failing to pay millions owed to contractors and pensioners. This disparity suggests that while Nigeria may be generating more revenue, the real challenge lies in its ability to distribute that wealth effectively. The administration's focus on tax reforms and duty collection is welcome, but it's just one part of the puzzle. The real test will come when the money starts flowing to those who need it most.

  • Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) revenue in 2025: ₦7.28 trillion
  • National Revenue Service (NRS) total collection (Oct 2023–Sept 2025): ₦47.39 trillion
  • 2024 Federal Capital Budget implementation rate: Approximately 25%
  • 2025 Federal Capital Budget extension limit: June 30, 2026
  • Non-oil sector contribution to total tax revenue: 76%