Introduction to the Visit

Russian President Vladimir Putin landed in Beijing on Tuesday evening, with his official agenda being to join his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in commemorating the 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation. The significance of the Xi-Putin summit, likely to be held on Wednesday morning, runs much deeper, and its timing is key. Putin's visit was announced just a day after United States President Donald Trump's departure from China, following the American leader's summit with Xi last week. While Trump touted broad trade deals, there's little evidence that the US and China made significant progress on the most contentious issues dividing Washington and Beijing, including Taiwan and the US-Israel war on Iran.

The fact that China didn't make significant progress with the US suits Putin well, allowing him to head to Beijing confident that China has no plans to sidestep its relationship with Russia. For Beijing, meanwhile, the back-to-back visits are a flex of its growing diplomatic leverage, positioning China as a central player capable of engaging rival powers on its own terms. It's clear that China is positioning itself as a major player, and it won't let its relationships with other countries falter.

The Xi-Putin Partnership

Putin and Xi have forged a strong partnership in recent years, united by Western sanctions and a view of Trump's foreign policy as reckless. No major shifts are expected during the Russian president's visit. The timing of the visit underscores how Beijing is consolidating its role at the centre of an increasingly fragmented global order, analysts say. They're deepening their bilateral relations, and that's what matters most.

"I don't think that there is going to be a major shift," Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher in defence studies at King's College London, told Al Jazeera. "It's going to be a deepening of bilateral relations when it comes to economic cooperation, business, exchange of military technologies and so on."

Oleg Ignatov, a senior Russia analyst at Crisis Group, echoed that assessment, stating that the relationship between the two countries is strategic — they're partners, strategic partners, but they're not military allies, and he doesn't expect that they will go anywhere further. He won't expect them to become military allies anytime soon.

Joint Projects and Dependencies

Both sides are expected to advance joint projects, particularly in energy. China wants access to Russia's energy resources at a discount, while Russia depends on many of China's dual-use technologies, specifically for drone production, said Miron. Russia can't produce drones without China's help, so it needs this partnership.

Putin needs this more than Xi, as Russia is now the junior, dependent partner, following Putin's disastrous war in Ukraine. Putin might be looking for increased military support from China, according to Timothy Ash, an associate fellow at the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House. He's in a tough spot, and China's support is crucial.

"Rather as Trump went cap in hand to Beijing, so will Putin," he added. "China has all the cards."

China's in a strong position, and it won't back down.

The Broader Diplomatic Posture

The back-to-back summits are significant because they show Beijing's broader diplomatic posture. China is positioning itself as the indispensable interlocutor in an increasingly fractured international order, the analysts said. China won't be ignored, and it's making that clear.

Looming over the visit is the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran — a conflict that has shaken global energy markets by largely closing the Strait of Hormuz — with more consequences for China's economy than Russia's, said Miron. China's economy is at risk, and it can't afford to lose.

Russia is benefitting from the disruption in the short term, she said, with Gulf energy competitors sidelined. However, Russia won't benefit in the long term if the conflict doesn't end. Both countries want to see an end to the conflict, even while they have shared intelligence and technology with Iran. They're walking a fine line, and it's a delicate situation.

While the visit may not produce

a profound diplomatic outcome, it has made one thing clear: Beijing, in hosting the US president one day and the Russian leader the next, has made itself impossible to ignore. It's a significant move, and it shows China's growing influence. Beijing's actions won't go unnoticed, and it's clear that China is a major player in global politics.