The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has dropped a warning that could make your next loan even more expensive. Another interest rate hike is on the cards for 2026.

The news comes from the first edition of the SARB's Financial Stability Review 2026, published today. The bank points to two main culprits: the ongoing war in Iran and the rapid advancement of frontier AI models like Anthropic's Claude Mythos.

"The oil price shock is expected to continue to exert inflationary pressure, potentially prompting tighter monetary policy than before the conflict," the SARB said.

Inflation already rose above the desired threshold in May. That forced the SARB to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Now they're warning more could follow.

The war in Iran has rattled global markets, but the SARB notes they've "adjusted to the geopolitical shock in an orderly manner thus far." Still, underlying vulnerabilities have grown. The bank fears a "disorderly correction" — a sudden, sharp drop in asset prices that could shock the financial system.

Then there's the AI angle. The SARB is worried on two fronts.

First, frontier AI models lower the skill threshold for cyberattacks. An attacker no longer needs deep expertise — the model supplies it. And attacks can be launched at a much larger scale. The bank's nightmare scenario is a fast-moving cyber incident hitting critical financial infrastructure like payment, clearing, or settlement systems.

Second, the SARB is concerned about high stock market valuations driven by AI hype. This includes the projected values companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will get when they list on the stock exchange later this year. But it also covers other tech shares — AI-chip makers, SpaceX, and similar firms whose valuations depend on market excitement.

For ordinary South Africans, this means the cost of borrowing could keep climbing. If the SARB raises rates again, home loans, car finance, and credit card debt will all get more expensive. The bank is trying to cool the economy and keep prices in check, but the global pressures aren't easing.

The Financial Stability Review is a regular publication where the SARB assesses risks to the country's financial system. This edition makes clear that the bank sees the current moment as unusually volatile.

  • SARB raised rates by 25 basis points in May 2026
  • Inflation rose above the desired threshold in May
  • War in Iran is driving oil price shocks
  • Frontier AI models like Claude Mythos are lowering cyberattack barriers
  • OpenAI and Anthropic expected to list on stock market later this year
  • SARB fears a disorderly correction in asset prices