UK Leadership Crisis: Starmer Faces Momentous Choice as Burnham and Streeting Launch Bids

The UK is on the brink of a leadership crisis as Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a momentous choice. Every morning, Starmer wakes up to two questions: Does Wes Streeting have the numbers to replace him, and does Andy Burnham have a seat in parliament to launch his bid?

These questions have been on the mind of Starmer's allies for several months. However, the answers are still disputed. Streeting's team claims he has the numbers, while Starmer's team disagrees. But it's become academic as Streeting has quit the government to prepare for a run at the top job.

On Thursday morning, it was discovered that Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, had found an MP willing to give up their seat so he can take a crack at the leadership. This has started his long-anticipated attempt to make it to No 10. Although it's not official, the contest to replace Starmer is on.

You might agree with a cabinet minister who thinks the public is horrified that Labour is replacing its leader. Alternatively, you might share the view of another minister who believes the public's message from the ballot boxes last week should be respected.

Labour's tribes have decided it's time for a contest to replace Starmer in a messy and angry way. However, there are plenty of choices that still face him - decisions that affect everyone. If everything goes according to the challengers' plan, a leadership contest seems likely over the summer. A new leader will likely be in place by the party conference in late September.

There's already a debate at the top levels of Labour about whether there will be a contest at all. If Burnham wins the by-election, one minister thinks he and Streeting should find an accommodation to avoid a catastrophic leadership contest. Another senior figure predicts no one would stand against Burnham because he has so much momentum.

This view isn't universal, though. Others in the government are furious with Burnham and believe there must be a contest so the party can thrash out its differences. Burnham might not be successful in his bid to become an MP again. Reform will try to win the Makerfield seat to stop him.

For all Burnham's personal popularity, Labour isn't popular or rich right now. The UK, along with France, is trying to build an international coalition to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz again, with about 40 other countries. There's a Nato summit soon, where defence spending will be an issue. The EU summit is also coming up, where the UK wants a closer relationship with the European bloc.

The government's domestic in-tray is overflowing, and some decisions are already overdue. A defence spending plan, delayed for months, is sitting unsigned on the PM's desk. A consultation on tightening children's social media rules is about to close. Millions of households are waiting to find out whether they'll get help with energy bills ahead of expected price rises.

Starmer has vital time ahead in No 10 when there are conflicts abroad and intense pressures all around. World events don't stop because the governing party has a public nervous breakdown. Problems at home don't simply disappear.

"Where we've gone wrong is lacking a clarity of conviction and belief in our project," a minister who backed Starmer said.

Starmer's colleagues have struggled to know what he really wants. One of his allies joked that his way of operating is to arrive at the right decision in the slowest and most painful way possible. Nobody needs to point out to Starmer that changing the leadership mid-government causes huge disruption.

There's one big decision that looms over all - will Starmer wave goodbye to Downing Street before a contest officially arrives, or will he try to stay and fight? With many of his MPs, ministers, and unions on the record saying he can't be the man to fight the next election, it would appear standing in a race would be a choice to embarrass himself publicly.

This would be a near-certain embarrassment for a man who achieved something incredible - taking Labour from near oblivion back into power in four years. Starmer was in front of the cameras on Friday, visiting a police station before the planned protests this weekend, but he wasn't in front of microphones.

Burnham and Streeting have made their decisions. But whether it's vital decisions in government or his own future, Starmer still has to choose.