El Niño Brings Drought, Heatwaves and Flooding to the Caribbean

The single sharpest fact is that El Niño has strengthened in the Caribbean, and with the sea temperatures rising, the outlook is grim for the region. El Niño is a climate pattern where the surface water in the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes much warmer than usual. This warming changes the winds globally and disrupts normal weather patterns, causing extreme events like heavy rainfall, droughts and heatwaves.

And, if that's bad news, it gets worse. CariCOF has forecast irregular Atlantic hurricane activity through August, followed by a likely reduction in peak season activity during September. The outlook warned that lingering drought conditions in the Lesser Antilles are expected to ease more slowly than usual through September, while rainfall frequency across much of the region is also projected to increase at a slower pace than in most years.

### What Does This Mean for the People?

The expected occurrence of excessive rainfall events will lead to “high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts”. “Intrusions of dusty Saharan air will likely be frequent, inhibiting tropical cyclone activity, but exacerbating humid heat and deteriorating air quality,” it added.

So, what does this mean for the people? The potential for flooding, flash floods, related hazards and compound or cascading impacts due to excessive rains will be high to extremely high in most areas except the Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao (ABC) Islands.

### How Bad Will It Get?

As of June 1 this year, severe or worse, short-term drought has developed in southwest Tobago and western Barbados with long-term drought being recorded in easternmost Cuba, Grenada, easternmost Guadeloupe, southwest Jamaica, Martinique, southwest Puerto Rico, St Lucia, St Vincent, and southeast Suriname. CariCOF said that agricultural drought is evolving in St Lucia and might possibly develop or continue in the ABC Islands, Eastern Cuba, Dominica, Grenada, the Leeward Islands, Martinique and Tobago.

The drought is a big problem, and it's one that will take a long time to recover from. Water recharge in rivers and reservoirs is likely to be slower than normal in Belize and the Antilles, while fewer wet days through August will delay soil moisture recovery, limit rainfall disruptions to outdoor activities and only gradually reduce wildfire risk.

What's Next?

The outlook is bad, but it's not all doom and gloom. Irregular Atlantic hurricane activity through August means that the storm season is not going to be as quiet as usual, and that's something to be aware of. And, as the drought continues, the potential for wildfires will increase, so be careful out there.

### Key Facts

  • El Niño is a climate pattern where the surface water in the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes much warmer than usual.
  • The outlook for the region is grim, with drought, heatwaves and flooding on the horizon.
  • The drought is already severe in parts of the region, with long-term drought recorded in several islands.
  • Agricultural drought is evolving in St Lucia and might possibly develop or continue in several other islands.
  • The potential for flooding, flash floods, related hazards and compound or cascading impacts due to excessive rains will be high to extremely high in most areas except the Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao (ABC) Islands.