Andy Burnham just gave Keir Starmer a massive headache.
The Labour mayor of Greater Manchester won the Makerfield byelection early this morning, taking 54.5% of the vote. He beat Reform UK's Rob Kenyon, who got 34.3%. The Conservatives managed just 2.2%. The result clears the path for Burnham to challenge Starmer for the Labour leadership — and potentially become prime minister.
"Tonight could — just could — be the turning point," Burnham said after the result was declared. "From here on, I will give everything I have got to make it so."
Makerfield is a seat in northern England, between Liverpool and Manchester. It had been held by Labour since its creation in 1950. But with Starmer's government deeply unpopular — 69% of voters have an unfavourable view of him, according to a YouGov poll this week — Reform saw a chance to break through. They failed. Burnham's win shows he can hold off the right-wing populist surge that has rattled Labour nationally.
Burnham has been out of parliament for nine years, serving as Greater Manchester mayor instead. He was a minister under Gordon Brown, becoming health secretary in the last year of that government. Despite being outside Westminster, he's built a reputation as a straight-talker — the opposite of Starmer's cautious style.
Speaking at the declaration, Burnham told his own party: "This is a final chance to change. There will be no second chance." He called for a "new politics based on unity and hope," warning against the "divided, dark politics of the kind we see in the United States."
The win comes after weeks of turmoil in Starmer's government. Deputy PM Angela Rayner resigned over a tax scandal. Former health minister Wes Streeting quit and says he'll run for leader. Defence ministers John Healey and Al Carns resigned this month over defence funding disputes. The party is in open revolt.
To trigger a leadership vote, a challenger needs the backing of 20% of Labour MPs — 81 out of 403 in the House of Commons. The vote would then go to party members and affiliated union members. When the deputy leadership was decided last October, 161,000 people voted. Turnout for a leadership contest could be higher.
Starmer has tried to head off a challenge by arguing the priority should be finding a replacement for Burnham as Manchester mayor. He's also suggested bringing Burnham into cabinet. Burnham has played down that prospect.
But the numbers are stark. YouGov found only 24% of voters have a favourable view of Starmer, compared to 30% for Burnham. Reform leader Nigel Farage is at 26% favourable — but 67% unfavourable. Burnham is the least unpopular option.
Burnham hasn't set out detailed policies yet — nothing concrete on spending cuts, defence, welfare reform, or the environment. But after this win, he doesn't have to. The message from Makerfield is clear: Labour voters want change. And they want it now.