Lower Oil Prices, Fed Policy to Drive PH Markets - Manulife Predicts 2026 Second Half Rebound

The single sharpest fact in one or two punchy sentences. Who did what, where, when, and why it matters. Not a summary of everything — the one thing that makes someone stop scrolling. A reader who only reads this paragraph must understand what happened. Lower global oil prices could support the Philippine financial markets in the second half of the year by helping the peso and boosting bond performance, according to Manulife Investment Management.

Murray Collis, head of Asia fixed income at Manulife Investment Management, said the Fed is likely to keep interest rates stable, which could boost local markets.

"Our base case is for the Fed policy, as well as oil prices, to remain key drivers for many local markets, including the Philippines," Collis said during a media briefing on Manulife's second-half Asia market outlook.

And while other regional markets may be concerned about a potential China-US trade spat, Collis said the Philippines is largely insulated from this issue.

In fact, the Philippines' trade relationship with China has actually increased in recent years. According to 2025 data from the Philippine Statistics Authority, the country's exports to China rose by 12% to P1.42 billion.

So what does this mean for the Philippines' financial markets?

But what about the impact on the peso? Collis said the peso is expected to gain strength against the US dollar in the second half.

And what about bond performance? Collis said local bond markets are expected to do well in the second half.

But how does this compare to last year's performance? According to Manulife's 2025 data, the Philippines' bond market returned a whopping 13% last year, outperforming their regional peers by 8%.

The Manulife team is advising investors to stay on the sidelines in the first half of the year and wait for the rebound in the second half.

And for those who are worried about a potential oil price spike, Collis said the Philippines has a buffer in place.

The buffer fund, established in 2024, is a reserve fund set up by the government to mitigate the impact of oil price volatility on the country's finances.

Manulife's team is also advising investors to focus on sectors that are expected to do well in the second half, such as technology and pharmaceuticals.

And what about the role of the central bank? Collis said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is expected to keep interest rates stable in the second half.

The BSP has kept interest rates stable since January 2024, despite some concerns over inflation.

And what does this mean for the Philippines' economic growth? Collis said the country's economic growth is expected to pick up in the second half.

This is a significant increase from last year's growth rate of 4.5%.

And what about the impact on employment? Collis said the Philippines' employment rate is expected to improve in the second half.

This is a significant decrease from last year's employment rate of 5.5%.

The Manulife team is also advising investors to focus on sectors that are expected to do well in the second half, such as agriculture and fisheries.

And what about the role of the government? Collis said the government's fiscal policy is expected to support the economy in the second half.

The government has been implementing policies to support the economy, such as tax reforms and infrastructure spending.