Ebola outbreak hits 894 cases in one month, threatens to become Africa's third largest

The current Ebola outbreak across Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo has hit 894 confirmed cases and 204 confirmed deaths in just one month — and it's spreading faster than responders can track.

Dr Wessam Mankoula, Acting Head of the Emergency Preparedness and Response Division at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), gave the update on Thursday during a webinar. He said the outbreak now ranks as the third largest by total cases and deaths, behind only the 2014 West Africa outbreak and the 2018–2019 DRC outbreak.

Uganda has 19 cases, two deaths, and a 10.5 per cent case fatality rate. All cases are confined to one health zone in Kampala. Contact tracing there is at 100 per cent.

The DRC is driving the outbreak. Ituri Province is the epicentre, with 91 confirmed cases and 78 per cent of all deaths recorded in the country. North Kivu is the most worrying area — insecurity is limiting responder access, leading to a high death rate and the lowest contact tracing coverage among the three affected provinces.

The outbreak has spread to 32 health zones across both countries, up from just three zones in the first week. Cases increased by 38 per cent from last week to this week.

Contact tracing is critically low. For more than 800 confirmed cases, an estimated 17,000 to 35,000 contacts should be listed and monitored daily. But only about 6,000 are listed — roughly 20 per cent of the expected number. Of those, only around 4,000 are actively followed, less than 15 per cent of what's needed to catch new cases early.

There are no licensed vaccines or treatments for the Sudan strain of Ebola. So controlling the outbreak depends entirely on finding cases, listing contacts, and daily monitoring by community health workers.

Safe burial capacity is severely lacking. Only seven of 49 required teams are deployed, seven of 98 needed vehicles are available, and 84 of 540 required personnel are on the ground.

"Without licensed vaccines or therapeutics for the Sudan strain, controlling the outbreak depends entirely on case identification, contact listing, and daily monitoring by community health workers."

Africa CDC declared a public health emergency of continental security on May 18, three days after the outbreak was confirmed. The Director-General has since made field visits to the DRC and Kampala. On May 22–23, Africa CDC convened a summit in Kampala with health ministers from the DRC, Uganda, and high-risk neighbours like South Sudan to agree on a joint action plan.

High-level engagement continued with visits on June 12 from the EU Commissioner for Crisis Management and the WHO Director General. Cross-border coordination meetings between the DRC and Uganda followed on June 13–14. On June 16, the African Union Commission and Africa CDC convened heads of state and government, chaired by the AU Chairperson, the President of Burundi, to align political support.

A unified continental response plan was launched by Africa CDC and WHO, structured around 11 pillars. It has a six-month budget of $517 million for affected countries, at-risk neighbours, and partner coordination.

Testing capacity has improved dramatically. Initial backlogs of five to eight days have been eliminated — tests are now processed within 24 hours. Twenty-one thousand tests have been delivered to the DRC, Uganda, South Sudan, and Burundi. More than 27,000 additional tests are in the pipeline.

Treatment capacity is nearing its limit. Nine Ebola treatment centres in the DRC have 433 beds at 86 per cent occupancy. Nine more centres are under construction to meet projected case growth.

Infection prevention and control assessments covered 43 facilities in the DRC and 108 in Uganda. Forty-two sites have been supported for decontamination to protect healthcare workers.

More than 60 metric tons of infection control commodities and medical supplies have been delivered to the DRC and Uganda, with support from India and Egypt. Starlink equipment has been provided for connectivity at points of entry and surveillance centres.

A regional logistics hub has been launched in MTB to manage Ebola supply chains, with a strategic task force, market working group, and control tower to coordinate procurement and distribution across the continent.

Exit and entry screening guidance is now implemented. About 90 per cent of travellers exiting the DRC are screened, to reduce cross-border transmission without broad travel restrictions.