The single sharpest fact is that One Nation has lost 3 points on its primary vote, from 29 down to 26, in the latest Resolve Political Monitor survey, conducted last week among 2250 Australians.
And in a blow to Pauline Hanson's likeability, her +3 rating has dropped 11 points in a month, matching her December levels, when the Bondi massacre fueled her rise. Her favorability has plummeted to the same level as after the Bondi incident.
You might remember Hanson basking in the warmth of poll success and byelection glory just months ago, but now her comments seem to be repelling voters. After shifting from the comfort of criticizing the establishment from the sidelines to directly addressing the issues, her approach has been deemed reckless by some.
One of the pivotal events that contributed to this decline was the anti-abortion movement, which party leader Barnaby Joyce joined in June. Hanson's subsequent National Press Club address riled her core base when she called employees 'lazy'. She also argued for a monoculture that has left her redefining it throughout her address.
But it's not just the hardline comments that are hurting Hanson's image – her travel itinerary suggests she may be out of touch. She has met with Rupert Lowe, an MP who was booted from Reform UK and created Restore Britain, a party to the right of Nigel Farage's, in London. She's also walked the streets with Tommy Robinson, an extremist with a history of anti-Islam activities.
These head-scratchers suggest Hanson operates without much restraint, failing to shift her gaze to voters outside her core One Nation bloc. Australians might want a system shake-up, but the survey results indicate a significant portion of the disaffected are turning away from Hanson.
The past month suggests that while One Nation has broken into the mainstream as the Coalition and Labor faltered, a leopard doesn't change its spots. Voters shouldn't expect a hard pivot when Hanson returns from London, and the question remains whether this drop is a blip or the beginning of a bigger correction.
Coalition frontbencher Brigid McKenzie has been in London, on the conservative conference circuit, fuelling speculation about her party's potential involvement in Hanson's One Nation.
The survey indicates that only 19 percent of people think One Nation will win the next election, down from 28 percent. A total of 25 percent prefer Hanson to be the prime minister, plummeting from 33 percent last month. The Coalition, however, gains 3 points on its primary vote, moving from 20 to 23.
Labor's personal ratings, battered in the after-budget slump, have started recovering, with Anthony Albanese's figures improving in this survey.
Angus Taylor, criticized for his handling of the budget, received a glimmer of hope. He has been engaging in a fight with Hanson, casting her party as reckless, but there's increasing chatter about Andrew Hastie's ambitions.
The one thing that has not changed is Hanson's likeability. Despite the decline, it remains positive at +3, but her favorability has taken a massive hit.