Qantas is about to find out if 22 hours in the air is a brilliant bet or a very expensive mistake.
The airline's Project Sunrise – non-stop flights from Sydney to London – was announced back in 2017, back when the biggest problem it solved was a bit of stopover hassle. Then the Middle East war happened. Iran's conflict, which just ended with a ceasefire this week, has completely upended travel patterns and airline expectations.
Suddenly, a flight that skips the entire region doesn't sound like a luxury. It sounds like a necessity.
Qantas-commissioned research shows demand for ultra-long-haul flights has jumped from 58 per cent in February to 70 per cent in May. Among premium travellers, it's now 80 per cent – up 12 points in three months. The airline insists the market is there.
"Consumer intent to book ultra-long-haul flights has risen," the airline says, pointing to the numbers as evidence that travellers want to avoid stopovers in volatile regions.
But let's be clear about what Project Sunrise actually is. It's not a new Concorde. It's not even a new plane.
Benoit de Saint-Exupery, executive vice president for sales at Airbus, told a panel in Toulouse this week that Project Sunrise "is just the extension of an existing platform [the existing A350 model plane], so it's not a big development, it's an incremental development."
That's a polite way of saying Qantas is taking a standard A350-1000 – more than 700 are already in service – and bolting on a few extras. A 20,000-litre additional fuel tank. AI-powered flight planning. Special "Wellness Zones" in the cabin. Research on circadian rhythms to minimise jet lag.
Compare that to the Concorde, which cost $3.3 billion in today's dollars to develop from scratch. The Concorde was a brand-new supersonic jet that launched in 1976, faced massive public backlash over noise pollution, and was limited to flying over oceans before being grounded in 2003.
Project Sunrise is the opposite. It starts niche – one route, one plane – and then, if it works, expands.
Qantas chief financial officer Rob Marcolina calls it a "moonshot". But it's really more of a smart adaptation to a changing world.
The Iran war may be over, but the uncertainty isn't going away. Airlines now have to factor in geopolitical risk in a way they didn't before. A 22-hour flight that avoids Middle Eastern airspace might be exactly what the market wants.
De Saint-Exupery said that taking on the challenge helped keep Airbus' "engineering muscle going". Other airlines have already expressed interest in the specially made A350-1000ULR model.
For Australians, who are used to long-haul travel being a fact of life, Project Sunrise is a matter of national pride. The question is whether Qantas has read the moment correctly.
The airline's bet is that the world has changed enough to make 22-hour flights not just tolerable, but desirable. If they're right, Project Sunrise will be the future of long-haul travel. If they're wrong, it'll be a very expensive footnote.
Either way, we're about to find out.