IEC warns local government elections will be toughest in 30 years as trust in government collapses to 19%

The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) says the upcoming local government elections will be the most difficult to run in 30 years. Public trust in government has collapsed, and most South Africans now think the country's heading in the wrong direction.

Deputy Chief Electoral Officer Masego Sheburi briefed a joint meeting of three parliamentary committees on Friday. He said a face-to-face survey conducted between October 2025 and February 2026 showed widespread disillusionment with political leadership, a sharp decline in confidence in core institutions, and deep dissatisfaction with how democracy's working.

“Citizens have low expectation of responsiveness and delivery from the government, and that shapes the perception of democracy and drives disillusionment, which will manifest in intended abstention from participation in the elections,” Sheburi told MPs.

The numbers are brutal. Trust in the national government has dropped from 69% in 2004 to just 19% today. Parliament's trust rating fell to 20%. Local government – the level that will be voted on – dropped from 55% to 18%. Political parties hit rock bottom at 11%, down from 42%. Even the courts have seen trust slide.

“The local government elections will be highly competitive in an environment of low trust and high risk.”

The IEC itself hasn't escaped the trust crisis. Confidence in the commission fell from 74% to 32%. Among people who actually voted in the 2024 national elections, only 8% trust the IEC.

Satisfaction with democracy has flipped. In 2004, 63% of South Africans were happy with how democracy was working. Now, 68% are dissatisfied – up from 25% in 2024.

The elections are set for November 4. Parties and independent candidates will contest 10,439 seats across 214 municipalities and 4,466 wards. Sheburi said they expect a flood of candidate nominations, possibly exceeding the 95,000 received five years ago.

If the election were held tomorrow, only 64% of eligible voters say they'd turn out – down from 76% in 2015. But Sheburi said that number could improve if people see politicians addressing their concerns.

The voter roll currently stands at 2.7 million registered voters. The IEC loses about 34,000 voters each month due to deaths, but has added 106,000 new young voters since the 2024 national elections – an effort Sheburi described as unprecedented.

Voter turnout intention is highest in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Mpumalanga. Nationally, 62% of people still believe it's a duty of every citizen to vote.

The proclamation of the election date is expected in early August. That same day, the voter roll will close for first-time registrations.