If you were hoping the May budget would make life easier, you're not alone – but you're in the minority. A fresh Resolve Political Monitor survey, published today, finds only 23 per cent of Australians think the budget is good for them and their household. Meanwhile, 36 per cent say it's bad, and a third are undecided.
Even fewer people – just 30 per cent – reckon the budget is good for the country overall. These are some of the worst numbers for any federal budget since Labor took power four years ago.
The poll, which surveyed 1,801 voters between June 8 and 13, also shows Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ performance rating has dropped to its lowest ever. Only 34 per cent rate him as good or very good, down from a high of 47 per cent in May 2023. Nearly two in five voters say his efforts are poor or very poor.
Australians are deeply gloomy about the economy. Just 9 per cent expect things to improve in the next month, while 41 per cent think it'll get worse. Looking a year ahead, only a quarter are optimistic, with 44 per cent expecting a downturn.
But here's where it gets interesting for Opposition Leader Angus Taylor. His alternative policies are polling surprisingly well. Taylor’s plan to restrict welfare payments – including pensions and unemployment benefits – to Australian citizens and current permanent residents only has 48 per cent support. A quarter oppose it, and 27 per cent are undecided.
His proposal to link immigration numbers to housing completion rates is backed by 42 per cent of voters, with only 18 per cent against. And permanently indexing income tax cuts to stop bracket creep? Supported by 46 per cent, opposed by just 9 per cent.
Taylor’s call to scrap Labor’s negative gearing and capital gains tax changes also gets 42 per cent support, with 41 per cent undecided. More than half of voters support extending the life of coal-fired power plants, and 48 per cent back new power generation options like nuclear and biofuels.
In contrast, support for Labor’s three key budget measures has dropped. The plan to end the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount now has only 31 per cent backing – down five points in a month – while opposition has jumped ten points to 31 per cent. Restricting negative gearing to new properties has slipped from 35 per cent to 33 per cent support, with opposition rising from 21 per cent to 26 per cent. And imposing a minimum 30 per cent tax rate on trusts is backed by just 29 per cent, down five points, with 34 per cent opposed – an 11-point spike in a month.
“At a time when Australia needs more investment, not less, to improve our productivity, the changes proposed to capital gains tax and negative gearing will reduce investment and add significant complexity and compliance burdens to an already complex system.” – Bran Black, BCA chief executive
Labor’s only comfort? More than a third of voters are still undecided on each of these three policies, meaning there’s room to win them over. But with a Senate inquiry into the tax changes kicking off yesterday, and sharp criticism from the Business Council, the Council of Small Business Organisations, and the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the government has a fight on its hands.
ACCI policy chief David Alexander told the inquiry the measures would “have a significant and sustained negative impact on investment and productivity”, adding: “There is no compelling economic reason why tax reform should require higher taxes on investment in business.”
The Resolve poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. For Taylor, the numbers offer a rare glimmer of hope. For Labor, they’re a flashing warning light.