The political ground in Texas shook on Tuesday night when Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney-general, pulled off a victory that sent shockwaves through the Republican party establishment. By defeating John Cornyn, a man who has held his Senate seat for four terms, Paxton has effectively forced a political heavyweight into early retirement. The results were confirmed shortly after polls closed in the state's westernmost counties. This ended a bitter and expensive battle that pitted traditional party backing against the sheer force of Donald Trump’s endorsement.
Without a doubt, I’ll be the Democrats’ No 1 target in November. Texas will be the radical left’s No 1 priority, but we’re not going to let them take it.
Paxton, aged 63, now moves to the general election where he faces James Talarico. At 37 years old, Talarico is a state Representative and Presbyterian seminarian who has managed to frame his campaign around appealing to the middle ground. The contrast between the two couldn't be starker. Talarico started his run by defeating US Representative Jasmine Crockett back on March 3. This gave him a head start in organisation and fundraising efforts compared to the exhausted Republican primary camps.
This matchup is expected to become one of the most expensive political races in American history. Senate Republicans are already panicking. An internal memo from their campaign arm previously warned that a Paxton nomination would force the party to divert hundreds of millions of dollars away from other vital states just to keep this seat under their control. The stakes are immense, as the current Senate split sits at 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats. The minority party only needs to flip four seats to take the majority, and suddenly, deep-red Texas is back on the table.
Ken Paxton is not your typical Senate nominee. His political career has been a rollercoaster of high-profile legal issues, including an impeachment process by the Texas House and a pending indictment for felony fraud. He has also dealt with top aides reporting his conduct to the FBI and a very public divorce filed by his wife on biblical grounds. Despite his repeated denials of any wrongdoing, these factors led the Republican political establishment in Washington to throw nearly $100m behind John Cornyn in a desperate attempt to avoid exactly this outcome.
John Cornyn, at 74, has been a pillar of the Washington GOP, but he couldn't overcome the momentum Paxton generated by securing Donald Trump’s support just last week. Trump’s influence has been decisive across the country this month. He has already helped primary challengers oust sitting officials like Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy and Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie. Trump celebrated the news on social media, promising to bring his signature rallies to Texas to help his candidate cross the finish line in November.
James Talarico has wasted no time hitting the ground. In his latest campaign video, he labelled his opponent the most corrupt politician in America. Paxton’s team and the Republican National Committee have fired back by attacking Talarico’s personal beliefs. They specifically targeted comments he previously made regarding theology and biology, mocking him with the name Tala-freak-o. While Talarico held an early lead in the polls, the latest surveys show the race is now in a dead heat.
Roughly 8% of voters are still unsure where to cast their ballot.
John Cornyn’s campaign attempted to weaponize Paxton’s past, going as far as creating a digital dating game that allowed users to swipe through profiles of the attorney-general’s alleged mistresses. Paxton eventually called for a ceasefire in the ads, hoping to pivot to a positive tone before the general election. Even with the harsh rhetoric, Cornyn confirmed in his concession speech that he intends to support the party nominee. He stated he respects the decision the Texas voters have made.
Elsewhere in the state, the Republican landscape saw a mix of outcomes for Trump-backed hopefuls. Carlos De La Cruz, a veteran of the US Air Force, successfully defeated state Representative John Lujan for the open seat in the San Antonio-area 35th district. Meanwhile, the Democrats’ preferred candidate, Johnny Garcia, beat a candidate named Maureen Galindo. Her campaign had been heavily criticised for antisemitic comments. She still received nearly $1m in support from a group called Lead Left PAC before ultimately losing to Garcia, who serves as a public information officer for Bexar County Sheriff Javier Salazar.