US President Trump's Frustrations Grow as Iran Defies Expectations
US President Donald Trump expressed his annoyance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stating, "I was a little bit perturbed at his constantly fighting with Lebanon." The comment comes after a heated phone call between the two leaders.
Iran has taken a bold stance, firing missiles at Israel in a show of strength. This move has surprised the world, especially considering the swift collapse of Iran's regime was expected when the US and Israel launched their offensive 100 days ago. However, Iran's regime has not only survived the initial onslaught but has also replaced its leaders and begun retaliating by closing the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Trump had anticipated that thousands of continuous air strikes would force Iran to yield to his demands. However, instead of crumbling under pressure, Iran has become increasingly assertive. The regime now demands that Israel stop the offensive against Hezbollah, a Shia terrorist group in Lebanon, as a precondition for any wider deal with America to end the conflict.
Iran believes Trump is so eager for a deal that he might even try to prevent Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu from retaliating for the missile assault. By negotiating with Trump's representatives and dangling the prospect of an agreement without ever finalising anything, Iran hopes to create a rift between the US president and his only ally.
Last Monday, Trump called Netanyahu to instruct him to call off Israel's campaign in Lebanon, warning that negotiations with Iran might be jeopardised. The two leaders reportedly had a fiery argument. Trump downplayed the tension, saying, "I was a little bit perturbed at his constantly fighting with Lebanon." While Trump has told Netanyahu to stand down, the Israeli prime minister might refuse to comply, given that his country has been directly attacked. Furthermore, Israel will soon hold a general election, making Netanyahu's position even more precarious.
If Netanyahu decides to retaliate in line with Israel's military doctrine of swift and overwhelming counterattacks, the war will likely restart. Trump will then have to decide whether to join forces with Israel or stay on the sidelines. Whatever his decision, there will be no realistic prospect of a quick deal with Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, threatening the world economy with collapse.
If Trump chooses not to resume his offensive, he would have little reason to do so. At the same time, Iran's overconfidence could yet turn into foolhardiness. Iran's leaders seem to believe they can withstand another joint onslaught by Israel and the US, having weathered over 13,000 air strikes before. However, the stakes have never been higher, and the global economy cannot afford the loss of oil, gas, and fertiliser passing through the Strait of Hormuz for much longer.
Should Trump succeed in extricating himself from this fiasco of a war and avoiding a global economic calamity, he will have to negotiate a deal with Iran that falls far short of his grandiose demands for the "surrender" of the regime. Iran's assumption that it can manipulate Trump into restraining Netanyahu speaks volumes about its own strategic thinking.