The single sharpest fact

Coalition Leader Angus Taylor blames Labor's broken budget promises for the Coalition's plummeting primary vote, which has plummeted below 20% in the latest polls.

The Coalition's primary vote has failed to revive since Taylor toppled Sussan Ley in what was described as a 'change or die' moment in February. Taylor told The Australian that Labor's budget had 'eroded trust in the political system', adding to the damage. His comments come as the Coalition's primary vote has been stuck at record lows of 18 to 20 per cent since January, when a disaster schism occurred.

Taylor said in an interview, 'That's damaging both sides of politics. We're paying part of the price for it. This is the new political world we're in. We'll get some space over the winter break to talk more about our positive plan.'

Taylor's strategy may be too little, too late for some supporters. Coalition MPs had predicted that Labor's tax hikes would lead voters back to the opposition, but instead, voters continue to desert them for One Nation. Despite the latest primary vote polls sinking back below 20 per cent, MPs are not yet blaming Taylor, but it's becoming increasingly clear that Taylor's leadership is failing to stem the tide.

Labor is worried about Hanson's rise, but the problem for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is not as urgent as it is for Taylor. Labor would still win an election decisively on current polling numbers if one were held today. Government sources said Labor's internal research showed One Nation supporters were not sold on the idea of Hanson actually running the country, which has dissuaded Albanese from shutting down the idea of 'Pauline for PM'.

'I vote Labor, so that's the position that I take,' Albanese said. 'It's up to others to determine what way they vote in our great democracy.' Albanese refused to comment further on the rise of One Nation and Hanson.

Liberal president Tony Abbott called for calm, telling The Australian, 'It will most likely be a long hard road, but the Coalition is already rolling out strong positions that address the economic stagnation and societal fragmentation that's driving the 'neither' vote.' However, his words may be too little to reassure Coalition supporters, many of whom are fed up with the party's lack of direction.

Taylor said his budget-reply speech, which included a popular move to index tax brackets and a more contested measure to deny welfare for permanent residents, would have been viewed as 'completely revolutionary' in a previous era. 'The strength has to be our economic credibility – that's my strength,' Taylor said, emphasizing his role in turning around industries, businesses, and industries' growth throughout his career. He added, 'You know that's where I've come from, and I just don't think One Nation or Pauline have that economic credibility.'

Taylor's new critique of Hanson's economic credentials come after a week of policy fumbles and confusion on Hanson's part about becoming prime minister. The Coalition's reluctance to take her on for most of the year may have entrenched her position as the dominant force on the right. However, Taylor said it was becoming clearer that Hanson was targeting Coalition seats rather than Labor ones.

'To get rid of a rotten Labor government, you'll have to vote Coalition because Pauline is targeting Coalition seats,' Taylor said, emphasizing the risks of splitting the right-wing vote. Taylor's new stance on Hanson's economic credibility is a marked shift in his approach to dealing with the One Nation leader.

Taylor's new strategy to counter One Nation has seen his team deploy MPs such as Andrew Hastie and possibly Jacinta Nampijinpa Price. Hastie said on Monday that Hanson was 'MAGA First', but the Coalition's reluctance to take her on for most of the year may have entrenched her position as the dominant force on the right.

Lincoln Folo, a former National Party director, was appointed to lead the Liberal Party's campaign machine last week after Abbott and other party figures judged that Folo presented the clearest vision of how to fight on two fronts against Labor and One Nation. Sources said Folo has raised three ideas with colleagues recently: pushing MPs to become more active in their communities to counter mistrust in the party brand; more forcefully presenting a positive economic vision; and getting the message to conservative voters that Hanson's rise will decrease the chances of removing Labor because the right-wing vote will be split.

### Key Facts

  • The Coalition's primary vote has plummeted below 20% in the latest polls.
  • Labor's budget promises have eroded trust in the political system, according to Taylor.
  • Taylor's team has decided to be firmer in countering One Nation, deploying MPs such as Andrew Hastie and possibly Jacinta Nampijinpa Price.
  • Hanson is targeting Coalition seats rather than Labor ones, according to Taylor.
  • Labor's internal research showed One Nation supporters were not sold on the idea of Hanson actually running the country.