Nigeria Has Gone 20 Years Without a Census Despite ₦800 Billion Allocation

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Nigeria finds itself in an unusual position: governing one of Africa’s largest populations without a current official count of how many people actually live within its borders.

A 20-year wait for a population count has left Nigeria relying heavily on estimates. While various international agencies project the country’s population at over 200 million people, the exact figure remains unknown.

This uncertainty creates challenges for governments at all levels. How many classrooms should be built? How many hospitals are needed? What is the scale of housing demand? Where should roads, water projects, and public utilities be prioritised?

Without accurate population data, answers to these questions are often based on assumptions rather than evidence. The challenge is even more pronounced in rapidly growing urban centres such as Lagos, Kano, Abuja, Port Harcourt, and Onitsha, where population growth has significantly outpaced available infrastructure and public services.

In most countries, a census is a routine statistical exercise. In Nigeria, it is much more than that. Population figures influence critical aspects of governance, including national planning, infrastructure development, political representation, constituency delineation, and resource allocation.

Consequently, census exercises have historically attracted intense scrutiny, with questions often arising over credibility, methodology, and regional interests.

The stakes are particularly high because population figures shape decisions that affect the distribution of public resources and development projects across the federation.

Planning in the dark has severe consequences. Billions of Naira have been committed to the exercise, but the census still remains in limbo.

Substantial resources have already been spent on preparations. Under former President Muhammadu Buhari, the federal government approved approximately ₦800 billion for census preparations. Of that amount, about ₦224 billion was reportedly released to the National Population Commission.

Former NPC Chairman Nasir Isa Kwarra disclosed that nearly ₦200 billion had already been spent on preparations, including the acquisition of more than 760,000 digital devices intended to support the census.

Speaking in 2024, Kwarra expressed concern over the continued delay. “At the beginning of the year, we wanted to conduct a census in November, but we are waiting for that nod. If that is given, we will swing into action, and before the end of 2024, we will be able to conduct a very good census for Nigeria,” he said.

The President, Bola Tinubu has reiterated his commitment to conducting a credible census. During the inauguration of the National Coordination Committee for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics and the launch of the National Geospatial Data Repository in Abuja, the president described population data as a critical component of national development.

Tinubu stated that the population remains the greatest asset of the nation in the development process.

The President assured the NPC that the federal government would support the exercise and provide the necessary resources for its successful implementation.