American vacationers are hitting the road this summer, but the fuel tank is running on fumes. U.S. gasoline inventories have dropped to their lowest seasonal level in a decade — just 215.1 million barrels — as the summer driving season kicks off. And the problem isn't going away anytime soon.

Since the Iran war started and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, U.S. refiners have been prioritising diesel and jet fuel for export, leaving gasoline as what one analyst called "the neglected stepchild of the refinery slate." The Strait handles nearly a fifth of global oil flows, and its closure has sent shipping costs soaring.

U.S. gasoline demand has stayed strong despite pump prices jumping about 40% since the war began, now hovering above $4 per gallon. At the same time, exports of diesel and jet fuel hit a record 54.65 million barrels in May, according to Kpler data going back to 2017. Gasoline exports also rose to 22.52 million barrels from 20.10 million in April.

Analysts now say total demand for U.S.-produced fuel could reach 9.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this summer, outstripping the 9.2 million bpd that refineries can currently produce. "Balances will definitely be severely tight," said Sumit Ritolia, lead analyst for refining supply and modelling at Kpler. "Middle Eastern refiners aren't coming back quickly."

U.S. refineries are running at 95.3% of capacity — the highest in nearly a year — but cracks are showing. April recorded the highest average unplanned refinery outages in five years, with about 483,000 bpd of crude processing capacity offline, according to IIR Energy data. Some refineries are even postponing planned maintenance to keep running, a risky move. "If you defer maintenance, there's a chance later that you'll pay," said Raul Calzada, refining analyst at Energy Aspects.

Normally, the U.S. could rely on European imports to ease regional gasoline shortages. But Europe's own fuel supplies are tight, and freight rates are through the roof because of the Hormuz blockage. "Even if export rates stay where they are now, one can make a case for gasoline inventories to drop by 2 or 3 million barrels per week during summer crunch time," said Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser to Gulf Oil.

Distillate fuel oil inventories — used for heating and diesel — fell to a 23-year low in May, making the entire system vulnerable to any sudden shock. Gasoline stocks have dropped by more than 34 million barrels since the war started.

For Ghana, this isn't just an American problem. Ghana imports nearly all its refined petroleum products, and global fuel prices directly affect what you pay at the pump in Accra, Kumasi, and beyond. If U.S. gasoline supplies tighten further, international prices will climb, and the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) will have to adjust the price build-up again. Ghanaians have already seen fuel prices rise sharply this year, and this supply crunch could push them higher.

"This has left gasoline as the neglected stepchild of the refinery slate."

— Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates

With the summer driving season running until early September, the next few months will be critical. If U.S. refiners can't keep up, or if another unplanned outage hits, the global gasoline market could face a serious squeeze. And Ghana, like many countries, will feel the heat.