South Africa's current account surplus jumps to 2.4% of GDP – biggest in years

South Africa's current account surplus just did something it hasn't done in a long time – it shot up to 2.4% of GDP in the first quarter of 2026. That's up from just 0.6% in the fourth quarter of last year, according to data from the South African Reserve Bank.

The main driver? A much bigger trade surplus. The value of exports of goods and services rose by R78.3 billion, while imports fell by R96.8 billion. That pushed the trade surplus from R282.2 billion in Q4 to R437.9 billion in Q1. As a share of the economy, the trade surplus went from 2.8% of GDP to 5.5%.

The services account also helped – its deficit narrowed from 0.9% of GDP to 0.7%. But the overall deficit on services, income and current transfers actually widened slightly, from 3.0% to 3.1%.

In rand terms, the current account surplus ballooned to R190.7 billion in Q1 from R50.2 billion in Q4. That's a massive jump in just three months.

The improvement followed a better-than-expected GDP result for the first quarter. But economists shouldn't have been too surprised – net foreign trade was the only positive in the GDP data. Gains in domestic demand were offset by a reduction in inventories, so net domestic demand was flat.

South Africa's terms of trade also improved. The index rose to 122.5 in Q1 from 117.2 in Q4, meaning export prices went up while import prices fell. But that might reverse in Q2, as import prices are expected to rise and export prices to fall.

Here's where it gets interesting for anyone following Treasury's forecasts. The National Treasury has consistently underestimated the resilience of South Africa's export sector. In the February 2024 Budget Review, they forecast a deficit of 2.8% of GDP for 2024. In February 2025, they forecast a 2.2% deficit for 2025. And in February 2026, they forecast a 1.0% deficit for 2026.

But the actual numbers have been much better – a small 0.5% deficit in 2025, following a 0.7% gap in 2024, and now a surplus in Q1 2026.

For context, South Africa ran a current account deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2025 and 0.7% in 2024. So the swing to a 2.4% surplus in Q1 is a big turnaround. It shows that the country's export sector is doing well, helped by strong commodity prices and a weaker rand that makes exports cheaper.

But don't pop the champagne just yet. The surplus is likely to narrow in the coming quarters as global demand slows and import prices rise. Still, for now, it's a welcome surprise for an economy that has been struggling with low growth and high unemployment.