Hawthorn's prospect of landing prized key forward Ben King, without a costly trade, could be helped if Gold Coast continues to struggle over the final rounds of this season.
King, who is yet to sign with the Suns and is all but certain to join Hawthorn if he leaves, would present the Gold Coast with a situation in which the draft compensation would be significant if Damien Hardwick's team remain in the bottom five of the ladder.
Hawthorn believes it has the means to snare both Zach Merrett – viewed as likely to seek a trade to the Hawks again – and King, who is a restricted free agent.
But their prospects of that double coup would be greatly assisted if the key forward exercised his free-agency rights and the Gold Coast choose not to match the deal, allowing King to cross to Hawthorn without a trade, for no draft or player cost.
The Suns have said they would match any offer for King as a free agent, forcing a trade. For Hawthorn, the asking price would be higher than one first round pick – it would almost certainly be at least two first rounders, given Hawthorn's position on the ladder (meaning their pick for this year and next year would land in the teens, at best).
The Suns, who have had a raft of early picks, could well seek a quality player in return rather than draft picks, should King leave.
But Gold Coast's slump from seemingly finals-bound to 14th on the ladder can work to Hawthorn's advantage, as it did for Richmond in 2018 when they landed Tom Lynch as a restricted free agent, without giving up anything to the Suns.
The Suns gained pick No.3 as compensation for losing Lynch, choosing not to match the gun key forward's seven-year back-loaded deal worth about $6.5 million. They used that draft choice to select electrifying forward/midfielder Izak Rankine, who left after the 2022 season in a trade that netted the Suns another talented forward, Bailey Humphrey, another player on the radar of Hawthorn and other Melbourne clubs, including the Demons.
King told this masthead back in May of his wish to stay with the Suns, who have had a two-year deal worth a reported $1.3 million per season on the table for most of the season, but has not yet committed, in what is a decision driven heavily by where he and his partner wish to live in 2027 and beyond. He had not met with any other club.
The Hawks will need at least one first round pick for Merrett should the Essendon veteran seek a trade of Tullamarine again, 12 months after the Bombers spurned a final offer of three first round choices, albeit the Hawks' 2027 pick would be pushed back substantially by the Tasmania Devils' glut of picks and this year's first round shapes as a late choice (16 on current ladder order, but later after compromises).
To gain King without giving up draft capital would be an enormous coup for Hawthorn, but it would only be possible if the Suns remain mired in the ladder's lower end and have access to an early choice as compensation for losing a free agent (the compensation pick comes immediately after the team's "natural" draft choice, eg, it would be pick six based on the current ladder). The Suns still might reject the compensation on offer from a free agent pick, given their need for mature players.
The Hawks have recently made a revised and improved four-year offer to their own key forward Mitch Lewis, who is an unrestricted free agent. Talks are ongoing between the club and Lewis' management. Compensation for losing Lewis would be negated if they gained King as a free agent (not via a trade).
The Suns are optimistic that they will retain out of contract key forward and local product Jed Walter, who has been courted by rival clubs, including Essendon, who have dangled a lucrative five-year deal.
Gold Coast, who have lost their past six games after a promising first 10 weeks of the season (they were 7-3), have been burdened with a top-six fixture as a result of winning their final against Fremantle last year.
They are underdogs for Saturday night's game in Adelaide against the Crows, will be slightly favoured against the Bulldogs in round 19, then face the revived Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne (Gold Coast), Greater Western Sydney (in Canberra), the imposing Brisbane Lions (Gabba) and St Kilda (Marvel Stadium).
The Suns are one game ahead of Port Adelaide on the ladder, but only one win out of the top 10 and a potential wildcard final.